"Scenarios for the future of synthetic biology"

It is always tempting to extend technological trends to predict grand futures.  Yet predictions usually fail, either because one can never have sufficient information about the state of the world or simply because of surprise.  One method to address the inherent uncertainty in understanding future events is to explicitly delineate one's ignorance through the use of scenarios.  While I am no expert in developing scenarios, I  have always found my experiences with the Global Business Network and Bio-era in developing stories to be extremely useful in identifying what I don't know.

Bio-era has recently published a feature commentary in Industrial Biotechnology, "Scenarios for the future of synthetic biology" (for PDFs, follow the link).  Here is a brief excerpt:

The rapid evolution of biological engineering raises challenging questions about the future economic, social, and environmental consequences of the use of this technology.  Considering these broad issues requires an explicit acknowledgement of uncertainty: We can imagine many possible futures, but we cannot predict how events will actually unfold. Formal scenarios can provide a useful, structured basis for considering plausible future circumstances—enabling us to more easily identify key implications and any choices or policy considerations we might need to take either now or in the future.

Efforts at technology forecasting have, at best, a poor record.  Early predictions of the future of the computer industry envisioned the need for only a handful of large computers to meet all conceivable computing needs. In 1980, the US government and other analysts foresaw a boom in synthetic fuels that never materialized. Scientists and governments over several decades vastly underestimated the difficulty of developing practical fusion reactors. Early assessments of the cost of sequencing the human genome turned out to be too high by almost an order of magnitude. In each of these cases, significant economic and policy decisions were premised on predictions of the future that proved to be far off the mark.

...Each of the four stories presented here represents a plausible path to an uncertain future.  They are not predictions about the future, nor should they be understood as more plausible than other possible futures. Our modest hope, is that they might usefully serve to provoke consideration of the complex implications that accompany the introduction and diffusion of powerful new technologies that will inevitably lead to far-reaching policy decisions made under conditions of fundamental uncertainty.

"Scenarios for the future of synthetic biology", Stephen Aldrich, James Newcomb, Robert Carlson.  Industrial Biotechnology.  March 1, 2008, 4(1): 39-49.  doi:10.1089/ind.2008.039.

efuel100 Web Site Goes Live -- Buy Yours NOW!

I just received a tip that the web site is now up for the small-scale fermentation and distillation machine I mentioned last week (see "A Step Toward Distributed Biofuel Production?").  The efuel100 Microfueler supposedly takes a mixture of sugar, yeast, and nutrients and returns pure ethanol in a few days.  According to the site, you can also distill waste alcoholic beverages -- this ought to catch the attention of the guys at Gizmodo.

If anybody reading this plunks down the ~$10K for a Microfueler, followed by paying for all the razorblades proprietary feedstock, let me know how it works out.  I am definitely curious to see if the electricity costs to run the fermenter/distiller are as low as claimed.

A Step Toward Distributed Biofuel Production?

Sunday's New York Times caries an article by Michael Fitzgerald, "Home Brew for the Car, Not the Beer Cup", that describes a potential step toward garage production of biofuels, specifically ethanol.

(Update: I wrote to Mr. Fitzgerald in the hopes of getting more information, and he responded with this:

The company currently has only this placeholder site with a form on it:  www.efuel100.com.

It intends to announce its product May 8th, at which time it says it will have more information available.

So we will just have to wait to find out more.)

I have speculated for the last year or so about the feasibility and utility of distributed microbial production of biofuels.  Petroleum refineries and shipping infrastructure are big for a reason; due to both physics and economics it only makes sense to build big, expensive projects.  In contrast, once you have a bug that turns sugar or cellulose into fuel, the production process could in principle look a lot more like brewing beer.

Companies like Amyris are working on building bugs that can churn out a variety of fuels, and they are aiming for production capacity on a scale that is smaller than Big Oil.  Thus far, however, most of these companies seem to be aiming for hundreds of millions of liters rather than a few liters of production capacity (see my previous post "Amyris Launches Cane-to-Biofuels Partnership").  New technology may lead to rethinking this approach.

To give some context, here is a short excerpt from my recent article in Systems and Synthetic Biology, "Laying the foundations for a bio-economy" (see the original for references):

The economic considerations of scaling up direct microbial production of biofuels are fundamentally and radically different than those of traditional petroleum production and refining. The costs associated with finding a new oil field and bringing it into full production are considerable, but are so variable, depending on location, quality, and local government stability, that they are a poor metric of the average required investment. A very straightforward measure of the cost of increasing supplies of gasoline and diesel is the fractional cost of adding refining capacity, presently somewhere between US$ 1 and 10 billion for a new petro-cracking plant, plus the five or so years it takes for construction and tuning the facility for maximum throughput. Even increasing the capacity of working facility is expensive. Shell recently announced a US$ 7 billion investment to roughly double the capacity of a single, existing refinery.          

In contrast, the incremental cost of doubling direct microbial production of a biofuel is more akin to that incurred in setting up a brewery, or at worst case a pharmaceutical grade cell culture facility. This puts the cost between US$ 10,000 and 100,000,000, depending on size and ultimate complexity. Facilities designed to produce ethanol by traditional fermentation and distillation can cost as much as US$ 400 million.

Pinning down the exact future cost of a microbial biofuel production facility is presently an exercise in educated speculation. But, for both physical and economic reasons, costs are more likely to be on the low end of the range suggested above.

This is particularly true for a fuel like butanol. While distilling or filtering alcohol from the fermented mix would reduce the palatability of beer, it is absolutely required to produce fuel grade ethanol. However, unlike ethanol, butanol has only a limited miscibility in water and therefore does not require as much energy to separate. If an organism can be built to withstand the ∼8% concentration at which butanol begins to phase-separate, the fuel could simply be pumped or skimmed off the top of the tank in a continuous process. Costs will fall even further as production eventually moves from alcohols to hydrocarbon biofuels that are completely immiscible in water. Moreover, beer brewing presently occurs at scales from garages bottling of a few liters at a time to commercial operations running fermenters processing thousands to many millions of liters per year. Thus, once in possession of the relevant strain of microbe, increasing production of a biofuel may well be feasible at many scales, thereby potentially matched closely to changes in demand. Because of this flexibility, there is no obvious lower bound on the scale at which bio-production is economically and technically viable.

The scalability of microbial production of biofuels depends in part on which materials are used as feedstocks, where those materials come from, and how they are delivered to the site of production. Petroleum products are a primary feedstock of today's economy, both as a raw material for fabrication and for the energy they contain. Bio-production could provide fuel and materials from a very broad range of feedstocks. There is no obvious fundamental barrier to connecting the metabolic pathways that Amyris and other companies have built to produce fuels to the metabolic pathways constructed to digest cellulose for ethanol production, or to the pathways from organisms that digest sewage. Eventually, these biological components will inevitably be enhanced by the addition of photosynthetic pathways. Conversion of municipal waste to liquid biofuels would provide a valuable and important commodity in areas of dense human population, exactly where it is needed most. Thus microbial production of biofuels could very well be the first recognizable implementation of distributed biological manufacturing.    

The NYT reports that a company called E-Fuel has developed a refrigerator-sized box that turns yeast and sugar into ethanol.  This home fermentation and distillation unit is described as having a variety of technological improvements, such as semi-permeable membrane filters, that reduce the cost of separating ethanol from water.  The price point for the E-Fuel 100 Microfueler is suggested to be $9995, though few other details are given.

Regular readers will recall that I am not particularly enthusiastic about ethanol, but -- assuming it is real -- the Mircrofueler might be an interesting step forward because it ought to work for higher chain alcohols such as butanol.  The physics is fairly straightforward: there is an increase in enthalpy from mixing alcohol and water, which is in principle the only energy you have to add back to the system to separate them.  In practice, however, the only way to achieve this separation is to heat up the mixture, which requires considerably more energy because water has such a large specific heat.  Any technology that helps reduce the energy cost of separating alcohol from water could substantially lower production costs.

E-Fuel might therefore have a way to help Amyris, or LS9, or even BP lower the costs of separating fuels from aqueous production mixtures, and to do so with a box that could sit in consumers' garages.  This raises all sorts of questions about where the bug comes from, whether for the purposes of cost those bugs are consumables, and where the revenue stream comes from in the long term.  I suspect the answer, long term, is that the feedstock and the hardware are the only way to make money.

For example, let's say the University of Alberta 2007 iGEM team (the "Butanerds"), who continue to work on their project, are successful in building a bug that can crank out butanol from sugar.  That bug will be full of Biobrick parts, which at present sit in the public domain.  Acquiring a working circuit made of Biobrick parts will always be substantially less expensive than building a proprietary circuit.  In other words, if a bunch of (talented) undergraduates manage to get their "open source" biofuel production bug working, then it isn't clear that anybody else will be able to charge for a bug that does the same thing -- unless, of course, a proprietary bug is much more efficient or has other advantages.  But how long would the relevant genetic circuits even stay proprietary?  DNA sequencing is cheap, and DNA synthesis is cheap, so reproducing those circuits is going to be easy.  Nobody is going to get anywhere with "biosecurity through obscurity".

Either way, you then still need some sort of box that houses the bugs during fermentation or synthesis of fuels, and also serves to separate the fuel from the soup in which the bugs grow; enter the Microfueler.

So on the one hand we have a new piece of hardware that supposedly will allow the user to produce fuel at home from sugar (or, perhaps, starch, cellulose, and waste), and on the other hand we are starting to see efforts to build organisms that produce a variety of fuels that might be processed by that hardware.

Here is what I really want to know: How long will it be before we see a partnership between E-Fuel and a company (or an iGEM team) to put butanol (or other fuel molecule) "biorefinery" in your garage?  It could even be a company other than E-Fuel, because they are unlikely to have a corner on the technology necessary to build the relevant hardware.  Or perhaps there will even be an open-source "microbiofueler/biomicrofueler" emerging from a garage or university project?

Distributed biological manufacturing, here we come.

Amyris Launches Cane-to-Biofuels Partnership

I just received word that Amyris has now officially announced a partnership to use Brazilian sugar cane to produce biofuels.  Amyris and Crystalsev are aiming to hit the market with cane-derived biodiesel in 2010.  This deal has been in the works for a while; the press release is here.

Amyris now has access to large amounts of sugar, as well as substantial fermentation capacity, and they need to get their bugs up to snuff for producing large volumes of fuel.  Based on what I have seen in my travels, I expect they will get there.  In principle, the market will be the ultimate judge of the accomplishment, with consumers in the role of jury.  But the market, at present, is also skewed by subsidies and tariffs that place Brazilian products at a disadvantage compared to less efficient domestic production.  It is yet unclear whether the new biofuel will be subject to the same uneven playing field facing Brazilian ethanol.

(Update:  Since this post seems to be getting lots of traffic, I will point those interested to a couple of my earlier posts on the role of Amyris and synthetic biology in producing biofuels: "The Intersection of Biofuels and Synthetic Biology", and "The Need for Fuels Produced Using Synthetic Biology".)

Re-Inventing The Food Chain (or "On Food Prices, In Vitro Meat, and GM Livestock Feed")

Given the price of grain, and a dislike of genetically modified crops, Europe might soon be eating meat grown in a vat.  Stay with me:

The press is full of noise about the price of food.  Whatever the real impact of biofuels production on food prices -- which is probably very hard to pin down quantitatively -- the grain surplus we have enjoyed for decades is now over and demand exceeds supply.  This condition is probably permanent, and in order to keep the economy running we need to figure out how to get more production out of limited arable land.  This in turn raises the issue of improving yields and overall harvest through the use of genetically modified crops.  GM crops are widely grown and consumed in the Americas, but have met with governmental and consumer resistance elsewhere.

The general embrace by U.S. farmers of GM crops, and contemporaneous rejection of those crops by European consumers, produces interesting complexities within markets.  While the European region is presently a net food exporter, much of the feed for European livestock and poultry comes from the Americas.  Yet the strict safety testing and labeling requirements for food or feed containing GM plants amounts to a European zero-tolerance policy for importation of GM products.  While GM sugar beets and some varieties of GM corn may be officially approved for sale in Europe, consumers appear to avoid products with the GM label.

This policy has fascinating secondary consequences, namely that it is on track to force dramatic reductions in European livestock production due to increasing fractions of GM feed grains.  In an article in the October 2007 issue of Nature Biotechnology, "Europe's anti-GM stance to presage animal feed shortage?" (the full text of which you can find online here, PDF here), Peter Mitchell writes:

...If a solution isn't found, European farmers will be forced into wholesale slaughter of their livestock rather than have the animals starve. Europe will then have to import huge quantities of animal products from elsewhere—ironically, most of it from animals raised on the very same GM feeds that Europe has not approved.

Mitchell cites a report from the European commission that production of meat could fall by between 1 and 44 percent over the next two years, depending on actual supplies of non-GM feed.  Changes in attitude that produce a marketing environment friendlier to GM products may alleviate this problem.  Yet consumer resistance to GM products in Europe is both deep and broad.  Even in the face of economic hardship, brought on by reduced food exports and increased domestic prices, consumers and interest groups may take many years to change their minds.

The New York Times reports that pressure is growing in Europe to change policies on GM crops.  According to an article by Andrew Pollack in the 21 April, NYT:

In Britain, the National Beef Association, which represents cattle farmers, issued a statement this month demanding that “all resistance” to such crops “be abandoned immediately in response to shifts in world demand for food, the growing danger of global food shortages and the prospect of declining domestic animal production.”

Despite these pressures, Pollack writes that, "Since the beginning of the year France has banned the planting of genetically modified corn while Germany has enacted a law allowing for foods to be labeled as “G.M. free.”"

So, in a world with declining GM-free feedstocks, where is Europe going to get GM-free meat?  The science fiction vision of meat grown in vats could be economically relevant sooner than one might think.

Earlier this month at Wired News, Alexis Madrigal wrote about the recent In Vitro Meat Symposium in Norway.  A report was presented that claimed, "Meat grown in giant tanks known as bioreactors would cost between $5,200-$5,500 a ton (3,300 to 3,500 euros)" -- more or less competitive with current European beef prices."  Madrigal reports that according to Jason Matheny at Johns Hopkins University, "The general consensus is that minced meat or ground meat products -- sausage, chicken nuggets, hamburgers -- those are within technical reach.  We have the technology to make those things at scale with existing technology."  Matheny is the founder of New Harvest, a non-profit working on producing meat substitutes.

Madrigal's story carried a skeptical tone, and suggested that commercialized in vitro meat was probably many years away.  I have been wondering whether the market would, um, serve up cultured meat sooner than that, and this week brought an interesting surprise.

People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) just announced a US$ 1 million prize for, "The first person to come up with a method to produce commercially viable quantities of in vitro meat at competitive prices."  It may not be long before PETA writes that check.

If it is already possible to produce "meat-like products" at prices competitive with those in Europe today, then continued increases in the price of products grown on the hoof or claw should make in vitro meat even more attractive economically.  The feedstocks for meat cells grown in culture would be fairly basic, just sugars and amino acids, and possibly some lipids.  These in turn can be produced by plants, yeast, and bacteria.  In principle, a co-culture of non-GM animal cells and hacked/engineered microbes that serve as feeder cells could provide a fairly high-efficiency conversion of sunlight to meat.  That might not pass muster in Europe, but it would probably sell like hotcakes Big Macs in other countries.  And how could you tell the difference?

Pushing further down this road, how long will it be before an iGEM team produces a circuit that facilitates the differentiation and culture of stem cells from fowl, fish, and mammals to produce a better burger?  I suppose an intermediary step is to hack filamentous E. coli so that it grows to have the texture of muscle tissue for minced meat.  Those clever undergrads have already made coli smell like bananas and mint, so why not add a few more metabolic products: "Yum! Tastes just like chicken!"  Or lamb.  Or yak.  Yuck. You could even enjoy a nice "coliburger" ("bactoburger"?) that intentionally contained bacteria and not have to worry about kidney and liver damage.  (Oh, yes, this is waaaay more fun than finishing the last chapter of my book.)

Just as long as our in vitro meat isn't actually made of people (see 1:34:29).  Can't wait for the t-shirt.

Catching up on the News - Big Biotech Investment by India

Now that my book is nearing completion, I can start looking around a bit more.  I missed this last November -- according to a news brief in Nature, India is planning to seriously boost its expenditures on biotech:

For the first time, Indiahas appointed a biologist as head of its largest research agency. The announcement coincides with the unveiling of a national strategy for biotechnology, supported by a 65-billion-rupee (US$1.6-billion) commitment over the next 5 years.

Samir Brahmachari, former director of the Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology in Delhi, is the new chief of the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR). The CSIR manages 41 labs with a staff of more than 18,000 scientists and has been without a permanent director since December 2006.

The strategy approved by the cabinet on 14 November calls for one-third of the government's research budget to be spent on biotechnology — a 450% increase over the previous 5 years — in partnership with private-sector funding. The plan will create 50 biotech 'centres of excellence' by 2012.

                                                                                   

"Laying the foundations for a bio-economy"

My new commentary, "Laying the foundations for a bio-economy", will be appearing in a upcoming issue of Systems and Synthetic Biology.  The piece is freely available online as both text and PDF.  Thanks to Springer for supporting the Open Access option.  Here are the abstract, the first two paragraphs, and the last two paragraphs:

Abstract  Biologicaltechnologies are becoming an important part of the economy. Biotechnology already contributes at least 1% of US GDP, with revenues growing as much as 20% annually. The introduction of composable biological parts will enable an engineering discipline similar to the ones that resulted in modern aviation and information technology. As the sophistication of biological engineering increases, it will provide new goods and services at lower costs and higher efficiencies. Broad access to foundational engineering technologies is seen by some as a threat to physical and economic security. However, regulation of access will serve to suppress the innovation required to produce new vaccines and other countermeasures as well as limiting general economic growth.          


Welcome to the Paleobiotic Age. Just as today we look back somewhat wistfully on our quaint Paleolithic--literally "old stone"--ancestors, so will our descendants see the present age as that of "old biology", inhabited by Paleobiotic Man. The technologies we use to manipulate biological systems are experiencing dramatic improvement, and as a result are driving change throughout human economies.       

In order to understand the impact of our growing economic dependence on biological technologies it is worth taking a moment to consider the meaning of economy. "Economy" is variously thought of as, "the management of the resources of a country, especially with a view to its productivity" and "the disposition or regulation of the parts or functions of any organic whole; an organized system or method"  Amid a constantly increasing demand for resources, we look to technology to improve the productivity of labor, to improve the efficiency of industrial process and energy production, and to improve the yield of agriculture. Very tritely, we look to technological innovation within our economy to provide more stuff at lower cost. Biological technologies are increasingly playing that role.

...

In this, the Paleobiotic Age, our society is only just beginning to struggle with all the social and technical questions that arise from a fundamental transformation of the economy. History holds many lessons for those of us involved in creating new tools and new organisms and in trying to safely integrate these new technologies into an already complex socio-economic system. Alas, history also fails to provide examples of any technological system as powerful as rational engineering of biology. We have precious little guidance concerning how our socio-economic system might be changed in the Neobiotic Age to come. We can only attempt to minimize our mistakes and rapidly correct those we and others do make.

The coming bio-economy will be based on fundamentally less expensive and more distributed technologies than those that shaped the course of the 20th Century. Our choices about how to structure the system around biological technologies will determine the pace and effectiveness of innovation. As with the rest of the natural and human built world, the development of this system is decidedly in human hands. To paraphrase Stewart Brand: We are as engineers, and we'd better get good at it in a hurry.          

Publication of the Venter Institute's synthetic bacterial chromosome

Craig Venter and his crew have just published a paper in Science demonstrating synthesis of a complete bacterial chromosome.  Venter let the cat out of the bag late last year in an interview with The Guardian, which I wrote about a few weeks ago, here: "Updated Longest Synthetic DNA Plot".

As a technical achievement, the paper, by Gibson, et al., is actually quite nice.  The authors ordered ~5kB gene cassettes from Blue Heron, DNA 2.0, and GENEART, and then used a parallel method to assemble those cassettes into the ~580kB full genome in just a few steps.  They contrast their method, which may be generalizable to any sequence, with previous research:

All [the previous] methods used sequential stepwise addition of segments to reconstruct a donor genome within a recipient bacterium. The sequential nature of these constructions makes such methods slower than the purely hierarchical scheme that we employed.

The Itaya and Holt groups found that the bacterial recipient strains were unable to tolerate some portions of the donor genome to be cloned, for example ribosomal RNA operons. In contrast, we found that the M. genitalium ribosomal RNA genes could be stably cloned in E. coli BACs. We were able to clone the entire M. genitalium genome, and also to assemble the four quarter genomes in a single step, using yeast as a recipient host. However, we do not yet know how generally useful yeast will be as a recipient for bacterial genome sequences.

The team was evidently unable to successfully use the synthetic chromosome to boot up a new organism.  It turns out that one of the techniques they developed in fact gets in the way of finishing this final step.  There is an interesting note, added in proof, at the end of the paper:

While this paper was in press, we realized that the TARBAC vector in our sMgTARBAC37 clone interrupts the gene for the RNA subunit of RNase P (rnpB). This confirms our speculation that the vector might not be at a suitable site for subsequent transplantation experiments.

So, Gibson, et al., made really interesting technical progress in developing a method to assemble large, (seemingly) arbitrary sequences.  However, their goal of booting up a synthetic chromosome using the assembly technique is presently stymied by one of the technologies they are relying on to propagate the large construct in yeast.  As for the goal of "synthetic life" as defined by constructing a working genome from raw materials, they are close, but not quite there.  Given the many different wasy of manipulating large pieces of DNA within microbes, it won't be long until the Venter Institute team gets there.

Andrew Pollack of the NYT quotes Venter as saying, “What we are doing with the synthetic chromosome is going to be the design process of the future."  This is a bit of a stretch, because no one in their right mind is going to synthesize an entire microbial genome for a real engineering project, with real costs, anytime soon.  Any design process that involves writing whole genomes is going to be WAY in the future.  As I wrote in the "Longest Synthetic DNA" post:

The more interesting numbers are, say, 10-50 genes and 10,00-50,000 bases.  This is the size of a genetic program or circuit that will have interesting economic value for many decades to come.  But while assembling synthetic constructs (plasmids) this size is still not trivial, it is definitely old news.  The question is how will the cost for constructs of this size fall, and when can I have that DNA in days or hours instead of weeks?  And how soon before I can have a desktop box that prints synthetic DNA of this length?  As I have previously noted in this space, there is clear demand for this sort of box, which means that it will happen sooner or later.  Probably sooner.

The Gibson, et al, Science paper doesn't say how many person-hours the project took, nor does it say exactly how much they spent on their synthetic construct (presumably they got a nice volume discount).  The fact that the project isn't actually finished demonstrates that this is hardly a practical engineering challenge that will find a role in the economy anytime soon.

That said, I could certainly be wrong about this assertion, particularly if other technical approaches crop up, as may well happen.  In the NYT story Venter is quoted as saying that, "I will be equally surprised and disappointed if we can’t do it in 2008.”  And they probably will, but what is the real impact of that success? 

The NYT story, by Andrew Pollack, carries the unfortunate title, "Scientists Take New Step Toward Man-Made Life".  Not so much.  Even if Venter and colleagues do get their chromosome working, they will have demonstrated not "man-made" life, but rather a synthetic instruction set running in a pre-existing soup of proteins and metabolites in a pre-existing cell.  It's really no different than getting a synthetic viral genome working in cell culture, which is old news.  Show me a bacterial cell, or something else obviously alive, from an updated Miller-Urey experiment and then I will be really impressed.  Thus the Gibson paper represents a nice technical advance, and a good recipe for doing more science, but not much in the way of a philosophical earthquake.

Without the ability to easily -- very easily -- print genomes and get them into host cells at high efficiency and low cost, building synthetic genomes will remain just interesting science.

The New York Times gets a story title backwards

The story itself is right on the money, mind you -- I highly recommend reading it -- but the title, "An Oil Quandary: Costly Fuel Means Costly Calories", is bass-ackwards.  That title, probably courtesy of an editor, rather than the reporters, would be accurate for ethanol but has the effect before the cause for vegetable oil-based biodiesel.

Indeed, the story is the same as the one Bio-era has been telling for the last year.  "Chomp! Chomp! Fueling a new agribusiness", written (mostly by Jim Newcomb) for CLSA, nailed all the trends early on; rising income, rising meat consumption, grain use for food and feed, water supply issues, carbon emissions, and government mandates for biofuel use.  It all adds up to a big mess, for the time being.

As I wrote last year while in Hong Kong (See "Asia Biofuels Travelblog, Pt. 2"), after having just been on the ground in Malaysia and Singapore, food use has driven the price of of palm and other vegetable oils well above the wholesale price for finished petrodiesel.  Planting more oil palms, even if done on land that has already been cleared (i.e., not on virgin jungle or on drained peat bogs), is unlikely to ease price pressures because demand is climbing much faster than supply could possibly keep up (see the "Travelblog" post for some rough numbers).  In other words, there is plenty of price pressure to keep cutting down forests and draining peat bogs, carbon emissions be damned.  Prices are probably going to stay high for quite a while.

As the NYT story notes, biodiesel refineries are sitting idle all over the place because the feedstock is way too expensive to turn into fuel.  Far better, and more profitable, to eat it.  The heart of the matter is that, as the Times says, "Huge demand for biofuels has created tension between using land to produce fuel and using it for food."  The arable land is the key issue, and the only way the ongoing collision between food and fuel is going to be resolved is by using non-food feedstock to make fuel, to grow that feedstock on land that cannot be used to produce food at market prices, and produce biofuels using new technologies.  Synthetic biology, various grasses, and sugar from Brazil seem to be the way to go (see my earlier posts "The Need for Fuels Produced Using Synthetic Biology" and "The Intersection of Biofuels and Synthetic Biology").  Hmmm...I still need to post something about switchgrass, miscanthus, and prairies.  Maybe next week.

I'm headed to Houston on Monday for a Roundtable on biofuels run by Bio-era, "Biotech Biofuels & the Future of the Oil Industry".  Companies in the oil industry, agbiotech, and synthetic biology will all be there.  Should be interesting.

High Yield Ethanol Fermentation from Synthesis Gas

The New York Times is reporting that GM has directly invested in a waste-to-ethanol company in order to help supply biofuels.  Coskata (another Khosla-funded company) has a proprietary combined industrial-biological process for using synthesis gas (CO and H2) to produce ethanol.  Here is the NYT story, by Matthew Wald.

This announcement is interesting to me for several reasons.  First, it turns out I was told all about the Coskata process late last year (though not the GM investment), but I was so busy I didn't tune in sufficiently and so completely missed the significance.  Oops.

Second, in about 2002, I suggested to GM's upper management that they should start thinking of themselves as a "transportation solutions" company rather than just a company that sells cars, and that they invest in providing alternative fuels to ensure that their advanced technology cars would have something to burn. (As the NDA has long since expired, I will connect the dots and point interested readers to an earlier post of mine on producing hydrogen from waste.)  Think W. Edwards Deming and buggy whip manufacturers -- over the next two decades selling cars by themselves is rapidly going to become a losing business model in developed countries as manufacturing practices change and as carbon becomes a bigger issue.  I don't claim that my suggestion five years ago is what got GM started down this road, but I am certainly interested to see that they have made the decision.

The NYT story quotes a number of people commenting on GM's investment, and I think this is the most interesting one, because it is so wrong:

“I don’t really see the logic of it,” said Christopher Flavin, president of the Worldwatch Institute, a Washington environmental group. “It’s not particularly an industry they know well, or have expertise in.” Companies like G.M., he said, could be more effective by concentrating on the fuel efficiency of their products.

GM is now facing enormous pressure to reduce the carbon emissions from its vehicles, in part by increasing fuel efficiencies.  But that isn't the whole story.  Carbon emissions can fall much faster by switching to new fuels, but the extra cost that goes into building engines able to burn those fuels is wasted without access to the fuel.  My earlier suggestion to GM was in the context of using hydrogen as that fuel, but the argument is the same for any other fuel.  Without a sufficient supply of the fuel, why would anyone bother to pay extra for a vehicle that could have lower emissions if only the fuel were available? 

The Coskata website is rather thin on details, but basically they describe a microbe that can convert CO and H2 to ethanol on the fly.  I am absolutely certain the NDA covering the conversation in which I learned about this is still in effect, which limits my ability to say more than what has been published elsewhere.

What I can say is that, if the technology proves to be as efficient and versatile as is claimed, this strategy makes a great deal of sense.  From the NYT story:

If it can be done economically, the Coskata process has three large advantages over corn-based ethanol, according to General Motors. First, it uses a cheaper feedstock that would not compete with food production. Second, the feedstock is available all over the country, a crucial point since ethanol cannot be shipped from the corn belt to areas of high gasoline demand in existing pipelines.

As I have written in this space many times (see, for example, "The Need for Fuels Produced Using Synthetic Biology"), getting away from competition with food is the most important next step in increasing biofuel production.  Diversifying feedstocks to include waste products is critical.

Finally, it is interesting to speculate about the possibility of combining Coskata's synthesis gas eating microbe with the non-fermentative biofuel synthesis I wrote about last week.  Fermentation produces lots of stuff besides ethanol, and ethanol is toxic to most microbes above minimal concentrations.  Besides, ethanol sucks as a biofuel.  So if you could patch the biosynthesis technology that Gevo (another Khosla-funded company, hmmm...) just licensed from UCLA into a bug that eats synthesis gas, you would have a generalized method for taking any organic trash and converting it via synthesis gas into many useful materials, starting with fuels.  Put all together and what do you get?

Say it all together now: "Distributed Biological Manufacturing" (PDF).